Menu | Explaining level changesMark Turner v Martyn Beazley (Wed 15 Nov 2023)Match won by Mark Turner. Result: 15-2,15-4,15-5.Starting level for Mark Turner: 998, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Martyn Beazley: 438, level confidence: 65%. Mark Turner to win as he is currently playing 128% better than Martyn Beazley. Mark Turner won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 309% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Turner played 309% better than Martyn Beazley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Turner actually played at a level of 1,337 and Martyn Beazley at a level of 327. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 21% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Turner changes to +13% and Martyn Beazley changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Turner becomes +7.8% and for Martyn Beazley becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Ickleford Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Turner is +3.9% and for Martyn Beazley is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Martyn Beazley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Turner: 86%, Martyn Beazley: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Turner: 64%, Martyn Beazley: 60%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Turner: 1,036, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Martyn Beazley: 417, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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