Menu | Explaining level changesMartyn Beazley v Michael Broadbent (Fri 10 Nov 2023)Match won by Michael Broadbent. Result: 13-15,15-11,8-15,15-9,11-15.Starting level for Martyn Beazley: 429, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 829, level confidence: 26%. Michael Broadbent to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Martyn Beazley. Michael Broadbent won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Broadbent played 9% better than Martyn Beazley in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael Broadbent was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 615 and 829 without affecting his level. As Michael Broadbent has played below his allowed range at 536, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Broadbent would normally have been playing at level 736 (based on typical behaviour), Martyn Beazley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent changes to -9.5% and Martyn Beazley changes to +6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent becomes -6.2% and for Martyn Beazley becomes +4.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Ickleford Boxes' so the adjustment for Michael Broadbent is -3% and for Martyn Beazley is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Broadbent: 51%, Martyn Beazley: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Broadbent: 38%, Martyn Beazley: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Martyn Beazley: 438, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Michael Broadbent: 803, level confidence: 38%. Notes
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