Menu | Explaining level changesAmanda Bruce v Mike Brundle (Tue 07 Nov 2023)Match won by Mike Brundle. Result: 3-15,15-13,3-15.Starting level for Amanda Bruce: 401, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Mike Brundle: 753, level confidence: 21%. Mike Brundle to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Amanda Bruce. Mike Brundle won 67% of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Brundle played 62% better than Amanda Bruce in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Brundle was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 573 and 753 without affecting his level. In this case, Mike Brundle played at level 663 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mike Brundle would normally have been playing at level 675 (based on typical behaviour), Amanda Bruce played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Brundle changes to 0% and Amanda Bruce changes to +0.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Brundle becomes 0% and for Amanda Bruce becomes +0.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Mike Brundle is 0% and for Amanda Bruce is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Brundle: 45%, Amanda Bruce: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Brundle: 42%, Amanda Bruce: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Amanda Bruce: 401, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Mike Brundle: 752, level confidence: 42%. Notes
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