Menu | Explaining level changesJulian Benson v Matthew Brunning (Fri 03 Nov 2023)Match won by Julian Benson. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-6.Starting level for Julian Benson: 1,142, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Matthew Brunning: 268, level confidence: 55%. Julian Benson to win as he is currently playing 326% better than Matthew Brunning. Julian Benson won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Benson played 136% better than Matthew Brunning in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Julian Benson was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 365 and 1,142 without affecting his level. In this case, Julian Benson played at level 676 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Julian Benson would normally have been playing at level 724 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Brunning played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Benson changes to 0% and Matthew Brunning changes to +3.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Benson becomes 0% and for Matthew Brunning becomes +3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Julian Benson is 0% and for Matthew Brunning is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Benson: 84%, Matthew Brunning: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Benson: 63%, Matthew Brunning: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Julian Benson: 1,140, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Matthew Brunning: 272, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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