Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Greenwood v Rob Dickenson (Tue 31 Oct 2023)Match won by Paul Greenwood. Result: 11-4,10-12,11-3,11-4.Starting level for Paul Greenwood: 4,094, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Dickenson: 1,612, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Paul Greenwood to win as he is currently playing 154% better than Rob Dickenson. Paul Greenwood won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 87% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Greenwood played 45% better than Rob Dickenson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Greenwood was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,408 and 4,094 without affecting his level. As Paul Greenwood has played below his allowed range at 2,376, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Greenwood would normally have been playing at level 3,311 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Dickenson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood changes to -0.4% and Rob Dickenson changes to +10.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood becomes -0.2% and for Rob Dickenson becomes +5.4%. Given Paul Greenwood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Stratford Upon Avon Leagues' so the adjustment for Paul Greenwood is 0% and for Rob Dickenson is +2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Greenwood: 85%, Rob Dickenson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Greenwood: 65%, Rob Dickenson: 69%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Greenwood: 4,093, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Rob Dickenson: 1,656, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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