Menu | Explaining level changesMike Tolman v Dave Lord (Tue 24 Oct 2023)Match won by Mike Tolman. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-7.Starting level for Mike Tolman: 14,028, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Dave Lord: 4,802, level confidence: 25%. Mike Tolman to win as he is currently playing 192% better than Dave Lord. Mike Tolman won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Tolman played 106% better than Dave Lord in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Tolman was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,172 and 14,028 without affecting his level. In this case, Mike Tolman played at level 10,307 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mike Tolman would normally have been playing at level 10,726 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Lord played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Tolman changes to 0% and Dave Lord changes to +2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Tolman becomes 0% and for Dave Lord becomes +1.4%. Given Dave Lord's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Huddersfield Super League' so the adjustment for Mike Tolman is 0% and for Dave Lord is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Tolman: 71%, Dave Lord: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Tolman: 60%, Dave Lord: 42%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Tolman: 14,023, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Dave Lord: 4,823, level confidence: 42%. Notes
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