Menu | Explaining level changesErica Bricchi v Andrew Purr (Wed 18 Oct 2023)Match won by Andrew Purr. Result: 2-11,6-11,1-11.Starting level for Erica Bricchi: 241, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Andrew Purr: 400, level confidence: 42%. Andrew Purr to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Erica Bricchi. Andrew Purr won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Purr played 267% better than Erica Bricchi in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Purr actually played at a level of 595 and Erica Bricchi at a level of 162. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 36% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Purr changes to +35% and Erica Bricchi changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Purr becomes +17.8% and for Erica Bricchi becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Andrew Purr is +8.9% and for Erica Bricchi is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Erica Bricchi is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Purr: 65%, Erica Bricchi: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Purr: 44%, Erica Bricchi: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Erica Bricchi: 229, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Andrew Purr: 435, level confidence: 44%. Notes
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