Menu | Explaining level changesBernie Wright v Ron Fender (Mon 16 Oct 2023)Match won by Ron Fender. Result: 7-14,9-14,7-14.Starting level for Bernie Wright: 161, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Ron Fender: 411, level confidence: 54%. Ron Fender to win as he is currently playing 155% better than Bernie Wright. Ron Fender won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ron Fender played 83% better than Bernie Wright in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ron Fender was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 241 and 411 without affecting his level. In this case, Ron Fender played at level 312 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ron Fender would normally have been playing at level 332 (based on typical behaviour), Bernie Wright played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ron Fender changes to 0% and Bernie Wright changes to +3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ron Fender becomes 0% and for Bernie Wright becomes +3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Ron Fender is 0% and for Bernie Wright is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ron Fender: 74%, Bernie Wright: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ron Fender: 62%, Bernie Wright: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bernie Wright: 163, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Ron Fender: 410, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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