Menu | Explaining level changesRoger Camp v Mike Pinch (Sat 14 Oct 2023)Match won by Roger Camp. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-7.Starting level for Roger Camp: 3,355, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Mike Pinch: 1,536, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Roger Camp to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Mike Pinch. Roger Camp won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Camp played 83% better than Mike Pinch in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Roger Camp was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,251 and 3,355 without affecting his level. In this case, Roger Camp played at level 2,838 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Roger Camp would normally have been playing at level 2,860 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Pinch played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Camp changes to 0% and Mike Pinch changes to +0.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Camp becomes 0% and for Mike Pinch becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Roger Camp is 0% and for Mike Pinch is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Camp: 82%, Mike Pinch: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Camp: 75%, Mike Pinch: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roger Camp: 3,350, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Mike Pinch: 1,537, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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