Menu | Explaining level changesBarry Gilham v Colin Bruce (Wed 11 Oct 2023)Match won by Barry Gilham. Result: 15-4,15-6,15-3.Starting level for Barry Gilham: 1,694, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Colin Bruce: 1,262, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Barry Gilham to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Colin Bruce. Barry Gilham won all of the games and 78% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 246% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barry Gilham played 246% better than Colin Bruce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barry Gilham actually played at a level of 2,720 and Colin Bruce at a level of 786. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 61% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 51% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barry Gilham changes to +50% and Colin Bruce changes to -45%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barry Gilham becomes +19.3% and for Colin Bruce becomes -20%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Barry Gilham is +9.7% and for Colin Bruce is -9.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Colin Bruce is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barry Gilham: 84%, Colin Bruce: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barry Gilham: 53%, Colin Bruce: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barry Gilham: 1,855, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Colin Bruce: 1,200, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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