Menu | Explaining level changesColin Griggs v Ben Pinfold (Wed 11 Oct 2023)Match won by Colin Griggs. Result: 11-0,11-6,11-5.Starting level for Colin Griggs: 12,754, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Pinfold: 7,258, level confidence: 49%. Colin Griggs to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Ben Pinfold. Colin Griggs won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Colin Griggs played 200% better than Ben Pinfold in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Colin Griggs actually played at a level of 16,665 and Ben Pinfold at a level of 5,555. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Colin Griggs changes to +15% and Ben Pinfold changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Colin Griggs becomes +4.2% and for Ben Pinfold becomes -6.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British Open 2023' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Pinfold is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Colin Griggs: 84%, Ben Pinfold: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Colin Griggs: 65%, Ben Pinfold: 54%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Colin Griggs: 13,288, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Ben Pinfold: 6,912, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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