Menu | Explaining level changesEd Bottrill v Cameron Parry (Wed 11 Oct 2023)Match won by Cameron Parry. Result: 4-11,7-11,4-11.Starting level for Ed Bottrill: 6,000, level confidence: 25%. Starting level for Cameron Parry: 7,734, level confidence: 27%. Cameron Parry to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Ed Bottrill. Cameron Parry won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Parry played 120% better than Ed Bottrill in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Parry actually played at a level of 10,104 and Ed Bottrill at a level of 4,593. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Parry changes to +25% and Ed Bottrill changes to -27%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Parry becomes +6.9% and for Ed Bottrill becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British Open 2023' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ed Bottrill is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Parry: 52%, Ed Bottrill: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Parry: 40%, Ed Bottrill: 38%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ed Bottrill: 5,714, level confidence: 38%. Final level for Cameron Parry: 8,272, level confidence: 40%. Notes
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