Menu | Explaining level changesDaniel Wood v Steve Whiteley (Wed 04 Oct 2023)Match won by Daniel Wood. Result: 15-5,15-5,15-6.Starting level for Daniel Wood: 618, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Steve Whiteley: 389, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Daniel Wood to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Steve Whiteley. Daniel Wood won all of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Wood played 181% better than Steve Whiteley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Wood actually played at a level of 822 and Steve Whiteley at a level of 292. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Wood changes to +25% and Steve Whiteley changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Wood becomes +13.3% and for Steve Whiteley becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Daniel Wood is +6.7% and for Steve Whiteley is -5.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Whiteley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Wood: 84%, Steve Whiteley: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Wood: 63%, Steve Whiteley: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Daniel Wood: 658, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Steve Whiteley: 370, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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