Menu | Explaining level changesJames Hill v Mark Starling (Mon 11 Sep 2023)Match won by James Hill. Result: 15-7,15-7,15-7.Starting level for James Hill: 2,452, level confidence: 44%. Starting level for Mark Starling: 690, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. James Hill to win as he is currently playing 255% better than Mark Starling. James Hill won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Hill played 114% better than Mark Starling in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Hill was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 999 and 2,452 without affecting his level. In this case, James Hill played at level 1,591 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Hill would normally have been playing at level 1,712 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Starling played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Hill changes to 0% and Mark Starling changes to +2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Hill becomes 0% and for Mark Starling becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for James Hill is 0% and for Mark Starling is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Hill: 66%, Mark Starling: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Hill: 51%, Mark Starling: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Hill: 2,448, level confidence: 51%. Final level for Mark Starling: 697, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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