Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Greenwood v Peter Phillipson (Thu 07 Sep 2023)Match won by Paul Greenwood. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-5.Starting level for Paul Greenwood: 3,927, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Peter Phillipson: 2,293, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Paul Greenwood to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Peter Phillipson. Paul Greenwood won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Greenwood played 267% better than Peter Phillipson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Greenwood actually played at a level of 5,746 and Peter Phillipson at a level of 1,567. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 34% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood changes to +29% and Peter Phillipson changes to -34%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood becomes +9.3% and for Peter Phillipson becomes -13%. Given Paul Greenwood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change. Given Peter Phillipson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.7% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Stratford Upon Avon Leagues' so the adjustment for Paul Greenwood is +3.5% and for Peter Phillipson is -5.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Greenwood: 91%, Peter Phillipson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Greenwood: 62%, Peter Phillipson: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Greenwood: 4,057, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Peter Phillipson: 2,175, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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