Menu | Explaining level changesMark Turner v Rick Loveday (Mon 28 Aug 2023)Match won by Mark Turner. Result: 15-0,15-3,15-4.Starting level for Mark Turner: 898, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Rick Loveday: 365, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Mark Turner to win as he is currently playing 146% better than Rick Loveday. Mark Turner won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 543% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Turner played 543% better than Rick Loveday in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Turner actually played at a level of 1,452 and Rick Loveday at a level of 226. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 36% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Turner changes to +18% and Rick Loveday changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Turner becomes +10.2% and for Rick Loveday becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Ickleford Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Turner is +5.1% and for Rick Loveday is -6.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rick Loveday is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Turner: 78%, Rick Loveday: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Turner: 48%, Rick Loveday: 53%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Turner: 943, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Rick Loveday: 352, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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