Menu | Explaining level changesGreg Millhouse v Andy Lloyd (Mon 21 Aug 2023)Match won by Greg Millhouse. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-8.Starting level for Greg Millhouse: 1,652, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Andy Lloyd: 787, level confidence: 66%. Greg Millhouse to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Andy Lloyd. Greg Millhouse won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Millhouse played 67% better than Andy Lloyd in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Millhouse was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,144 and 1,652 without affecting his level. In this case, Greg Millhouse played at level 1,368 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Millhouse would normally have been playing at level 1,426 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Lloyd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Millhouse changes to 0% and Andy Lloyd changes to +2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Millhouse becomes 0% and for Andy Lloyd becomes +2.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'LSTC Leagues' so the adjustment for Greg Millhouse is 0% and for Andy Lloyd is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Millhouse: 75%, Andy Lloyd: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Millhouse: 67%, Andy Lloyd: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Greg Millhouse: 1,650, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Andy Lloyd: 796, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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