Menu | Explaining level changesAndy Lloyd v Duncan Tingle (Tue 15 Aug 2023)Match won by Duncan Tingle. Result: 14-16,14-16,10-15.Starting level for Andy Lloyd: 766, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Duncan Tingle: 1,541, level confidence: 61%. Duncan Tingle to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Andy Lloyd. Duncan Tingle won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duncan Tingle played 34% better than Andy Lloyd in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Duncan Tingle was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,102 and 1,541 without affecting his level. As Duncan Tingle has played below his allowed range at 1,064, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Duncan Tingle would normally have been playing at level 1,348 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Lloyd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 10.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Tingle changes to -2.2% and Andy Lloyd changes to +8.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Tingle becomes -1.9% and for Andy Lloyd becomes +5.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'LSTC Leagues' so the adjustment for Duncan Tingle is -0.9% and for Andy Lloyd is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Tingle: 78%, Andy Lloyd: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Tingle: 64%, Andy Lloyd: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Lloyd: 787, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Duncan Tingle: 1,525, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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