Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Waller v Chris Hensford (Mon 14 Aug 2023)Match won by Paul Waller. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-7.Starting level for Paul Waller: 277, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Chris Hensford: 199, level confidence: 38%. Paul Waller to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Chris Hensford. Paul Waller won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Waller played 136% better than Chris Hensford in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Waller actually played at a level of 360 and Chris Hensford at a level of 153. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Waller changes to +14% and Chris Hensford changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Waller becomes +8.4% and for Chris Hensford becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Paul Waller is +4.2% and for Chris Hensford is -6.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Hensford is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Waller: 82%, Chris Hensford: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Waller: 63%, Chris Hensford: 48%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Waller: 288, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Chris Hensford: 189, level confidence: 48%. Notes
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