Menu | Explaining level changesNeil Piper v Adrian James (Wed 09 Aug 2023)Match won by Neil Piper. Result: 11-7,11-8,9-11,11-7.Starting level for Neil Piper: 2,101, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Adrian James: 970, level confidence: 67%. Neil Piper to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Adrian James. Neil Piper won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Piper played 26% better than Adrian James in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Neil Piper was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,419 and 2,101 without affecting his level. As Neil Piper has played below his allowed range at 1,316, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Neil Piper would normally have been playing at level 1,796 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian James played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Piper changes to -3.8% and Adrian James changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Piper becomes -2.6% and for Adrian James becomes +8.4%. Given Neil Piper's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Neil Piper is -1.3% and for Adrian James is +4.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Piper: 85%, Adrian James: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Piper: 65%, Adrian James: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neil Piper: 2,072, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Adrian James: 1,009, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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