Menu | Explaining level changesNeil Piper v Dilip Chakrabarti (Wed 09 Aug 2023)Match won by Neil Piper. Result: 11-4,8-11,7-11,11-8.Starting level for Neil Piper: 2,144, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Dilip Chakrabarti: 1,395, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Neil Piper to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Dilip Chakrabarti. Neil Piper won 50% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 0%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Piper played 4% better than Dilip Chakrabarti in this match. As Neil Piper has played below his allowed range at 1,643, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Neil Piper would normally have been playing at level 2,030 (based on typical behaviour), Dilip Chakrabarti played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 15% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 10.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Piper changes to -7.5% and Dilip Chakrabarti changes to +10.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Piper becomes -3.9% and for Dilip Chakrabarti becomes +6%. Given Neil Piper's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Neil Piper is -1.9% and for Dilip Chakrabarti is +3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Piper: 89%, Dilip Chakrabarti: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Piper: 73%, Dilip Chakrabarti: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neil Piper: 2,101, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Dilip Chakrabarti: 1,434, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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