Menu | Explaining level changesRick Loveday v Sam Dalton (Tue 18 Jul 2023)Match won by Sam Dalton. Result: 8-15,8-15,14-16.Starting level for Rick Loveday: 359, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Sam Dalton: 928, level confidence: 65%. Sam Dalton to win as he is currently playing 158% better than Rick Loveday. Sam Dalton won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Dalton played 54% better than Rick Loveday in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sam Dalton was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 537 and 928 without affecting his level. In this case, Sam Dalton played at level 642 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sam Dalton would normally have been playing at level 746 (based on typical behaviour), Rick Loveday played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Dalton changes to 0% and Rick Loveday changes to +7.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Dalton becomes 0% and for Rick Loveday becomes +5.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Ickleford Boxes' so the adjustment for Sam Dalton is 0% and for Rick Loveday is +2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Dalton: 81%, Rick Loveday: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Dalton: 62%, Rick Loveday: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rick Loveday: 369, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Sam Dalton: 927, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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