Menu | Explaining level changesTim Hayden v Jon Harmer (Tue 18 Jul 2023)Match won by Tim Hayden. Result: 11-2,11-1,11-0.Starting level for Tim Hayden: 3,043, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Jon Harmer: 1,130, level confidence: 52%. Tim Hayden to win as he is currently playing 169% better than Jon Harmer. Tim Hayden won all of the games and 92% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Hayden played 1000% better than Jon Harmer in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Hayden actually played at a level of 6,150 and Jon Harmer at a level of 559. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 102% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 54% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Hayden changes to +8.9% and Jon Harmer changes to -54%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Hayden becomes +4% and for Jon Harmer becomes -24%. Given Tim Hayden's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Tim Hayden is +1.7% and for Jon Harmer is -10.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jon Harmer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Hayden: 92%, Jon Harmer: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Hayden: 46%, Jon Harmer: 36%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Hayden: 3,089, level confidence: 46%. Final level for Jon Harmer: 1,075, level confidence: 36%. Notes
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