Menu | Explaining level changesLazare Morel v Joe Magor (Sat 14 Aug 2021)Match won by Joe Magor. Result: 9-11,8-11.Starting level for Lazare Morel: 2,214, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Joe Magor: 5,412, level confidence: 45%. Joe Magor to win as he is currently playing 144% better than Lazare Morel. Joe Magor won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Magor played 38% better than Lazare Morel in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joe Magor was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,641 and 5,412 without affecting his level. As Joe Magor has played below his allowed range at 3,334, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Joe Magor would normally have been playing at level 4,439 (based on typical behaviour), Lazare Morel played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 13% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 9.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Magor changes to -4.3% and Lazare Morel changes to +5.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Magor becomes -2.1% and for Lazare Morel becomes +3.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Hit&run Sport Graded 2021' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Magor: 67%, Lazare Morel: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Magor: 50%, Lazare Morel: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lazare Morel: 2,279, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Joe Magor: 5,292, level confidence: 50%. Notes
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