Menu | Explaining level changesLuke Walker v John Kesting (Tue 11 Jul 2023)Match won by Luke Walker. Result: 15-5,15-9,15-11.Starting level for Luke Walker: 795, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for John Kesting: 356, level confidence: 54%. Luke Walker to win as he is currently playing 123% better than John Kesting. Luke Walker won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Walker played 80% better than John Kesting in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Luke Walker was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 524 and 795 without affecting his level. In this case, Luke Walker played at level 657 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Luke Walker would normally have been playing at level 673 (based on typical behaviour), John Kesting played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Walker changes to 0% and John Kesting changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Walker becomes 0% and for John Kesting becomes +1.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'LSTC Leagues' so the adjustment for Luke Walker is 0% and for John Kesting is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Walker: 94%, John Kesting: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Walker: 84%, John Kesting: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Walker: 794, level confidence: 84%. Final level for John Kesting: 358, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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