Menu | Explaining level changesSimon Davies v Paul Blakeney (Tue 04 Jul 2023)Match won by Simon Davies. Result: 15-12,15-4,15-13.Starting level for Simon Davies: 1,254, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Paul Blakeney: 566, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Simon Davies to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Paul Blakeney. Simon Davies won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Davies played 55% better than Paul Blakeney in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Simon Davies was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 832 and 1,254 without affecting his level. In this case, Simon Davies played at level 967 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Simon Davies would normally have been playing at level 1,064 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Blakeney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Davies changes to 0% and Paul Blakeney changes to +5.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Davies becomes 0% and for Paul Blakeney becomes +4.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Simon Davies is 0% and for Paul Blakeney is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Davies: 80%, Paul Blakeney: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Davies: 67%, Paul Blakeney: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Davies: 1,252, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Paul Blakeney: 577, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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