Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Tomlinson v Jon Harmer (Fri 30 Jun 2023)Match won by Paul Tomlinson. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-0.Starting level for Paul Tomlinson: 2,076, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Jon Harmer: 1,177, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Paul Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Jon Harmer. Paul Tomlinson won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Tomlinson played 313% better than Jon Harmer in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Tomlinson actually played at a level of 3,175 and Jon Harmer at a level of 770. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Tomlinson changes to +35% and Jon Harmer changes to -38%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Tomlinson becomes +13.4% and for Jon Harmer becomes -18%. Given Paul Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Paul Tomlinson is +6.6% and for Jon Harmer is -8.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jon Harmer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Tomlinson: 86%, Jon Harmer: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Tomlinson: 56%, Jon Harmer: 56%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Tomlinson: 2,210, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Jon Harmer: 1,130, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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