Menu | Explaining level changesMark Wadelin v Paul Greenwood (Wed 21 Jun 2023)Match won by Paul Greenwood. Result: 7-11,5-11,9-11.Starting level for Mark Wadelin: 1,681, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Paul Greenwood: 3,749, level confidence: 68%. Paul Greenwood to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Mark Wadelin. Paul Greenwood won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Greenwood played 56% better than Mark Wadelin in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Greenwood was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,473 and 3,749 without affecting his level. In this case, Paul Greenwood played at level 2,889 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Greenwood would normally have been playing at level 3,174 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Wadelin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood changes to 0% and Mark Wadelin changes to +6.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood becomes 0% and for Mark Wadelin becomes +3.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Stratford Upon Avon Leagues' so the adjustment for Paul Greenwood is 0% and for Mark Wadelin is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Greenwood: 82%, Mark Wadelin: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Greenwood: 69%, Mark Wadelin: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Wadelin: 1,711, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Paul Greenwood: 3,743, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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