Menu | Explaining level changesRoger Camp v Phil Borrett (Sat 20 May 2023)Match won by Phil Borrett. Result: 12-10,8-11,5-11,5-11.Starting level for Roger Camp: 3,493, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Phil Borrett: 2,751, level confidence: 54%. Roger Camp to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Phil Borrett. Phil Borrett won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Borrett played 31% better than Roger Camp in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Borrett actually played at a level of 3,549 and Roger Camp at a level of 2,708. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Borrett changes to +25% and Roger Camp changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Borrett becomes +9.3% and for Roger Camp becomes -6%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Redland Green Club Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Roger Camp is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Borrett: 74%, Roger Camp: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Borrett: 57%, Roger Camp: 69%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roger Camp: 3,388, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Phil Borrett: 3,002, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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