Menu | Explaining level changesRoger Camp v Ruth Drysdale (Tue 16 May 2023)Match won by Roger Camp. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-8.Starting level for Roger Camp: 3,508, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Ruth Drysdale: 561, level confidence: 49%. Roger Camp to win as he is currently playing 525% better than Ruth Drysdale. Roger Camp won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Camp played 136% better than Ruth Drysdale in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Roger Camp was taking it easy by anything up to 48%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 935 and 3,508 without affecting his level. In this case, Roger Camp played at level 1,548 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Roger Camp would normally have been playing at level 1,811 (based on typical behaviour), Ruth Drysdale played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Camp changes to 0% and Ruth Drysdale changes to +6.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Camp becomes 0% and for Ruth Drysdale becomes +4.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Redland Green Club Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Camp: 87%, Ruth Drysdale: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Camp: 53%, Ruth Drysdale: 43%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roger Camp: 3,503, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Ruth Drysdale: 587, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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