Menu | Explaining level changesGreg Millhouse v Jason Tinsey (Fri 26 May 2023)Match won by Greg Millhouse. Result: 15-11,15-13,15-5.Starting level for Greg Millhouse: 1,768, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Jason Tinsey: 868, level confidence: 46%. Greg Millhouse to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Jason Tinsey. Greg Millhouse won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Millhouse played 55% better than Jason Tinsey in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Millhouse was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,253 and 1,768 without affecting his level. In this case, Greg Millhouse played at level 1,440 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Millhouse would normally have been playing at level 1,540 (based on typical behaviour), Jason Tinsey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Millhouse changes to 0% and Jason Tinsey changes to +4.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Millhouse becomes 0% and for Jason Tinsey becomes +3.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'LSTC Leagues' so the adjustment for Greg Millhouse is 0% and for Jason Tinsey is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Millhouse: 80%, Jason Tinsey: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Millhouse: 69%, Jason Tinsey: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Greg Millhouse: 1,765, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Jason Tinsey: 884, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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