Menu | Explaining level changesZeb Young v William Wesseley (Thu 27 Apr 2023)Match won by Zeb Young. Result: 15-4,15-6,15-5.Starting level for Zeb Young: 9,191, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for William Wesseley: 1,497, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Zeb Young to win as he is currently playing 514% better than William Wesseley. Zeb Young won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zeb Young played 200% better than William Wesseley in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Zeb Young was taking it easy by anything up to 48%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,801 and 9,191 without affecting his level. In this case, Zeb Young played at level 4,637 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Zeb Young would normally have been playing at level 4,789 (based on typical behaviour), William Wesseley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zeb Young changes to 0% and William Wesseley changes to +1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zeb Young becomes 0% and for William Wesseley becomes +0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Zeb Young is 0% and for William Wesseley is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zeb Young: 77%, William Wesseley: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zeb Young: 54%, William Wesseley: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Zeb Young: 9,177, level confidence: 54%. Final level for William Wesseley: 1,501, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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