Menu | Explaining level changesJames Hill v Jo Hutchings (Sun 16 Apr 2023)Match won by Jo Hutchings. Result: 3-11,7-11,8-11.Starting level for James Hill: 2,601, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Jo Hutchings: 4,311, level confidence: 10%. Jo Hutchings to win as he is currently playing 66% better than James Hill. Jo Hutchings won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jo Hutchings played 83% better than James Hill in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jo Hutchings actually played at a level of 4,534 and James Hill at a level of 2,473. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jo Hutchings changes to +3.9% and James Hill changes to -0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jo Hutchings becomes +2.1% and for James Hill becomes -0.5%. Given Jo Hutchings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change. Given James Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Jo Hutchings is +0.7% and for James Hill is 0%. As Jo Hutchings has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so James Hill's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jo Hutchings: 32%, James Hill: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jo Hutchings: 30%, James Hill: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Hill: 2,597, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Jo Hutchings: 4,337, level confidence: 30%. Notes
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