Menu | Explaining level changesLucas Van Zijl v Martyn Newbery (Thu 30 Mar 2023)Match won by Martyn Newbery. Result: 11-7,4-11,11-9,11-13,9-11.Starting level for Lucas Van Zijl: 1,130, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Martyn Newbery: 2,277, level confidence: 46%. Martyn Newbery to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Lucas Van Zijl. Martyn Newbery won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martyn Newbery played 10% better than Lucas Van Zijl in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Martyn Newbery was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,626 and 2,277 without affecting his level. As Martyn Newbery has played below his allowed range at 1,423, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Martyn Newbery would normally have been playing at level 1,990 (based on typical behaviour), Lucas Van Zijl played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martyn Newbery changes to -8.6% and Lucas Van Zijl changes to +15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martyn Newbery becomes -4.2% and for Lucas Van Zijl becomes +8.5%. Given Martyn Newbery's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Martyn Newbery is -2% and for Lucas Van Zijl is +4.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martyn Newbery: 68%, Lucas Van Zijl: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martyn Newbery: 50%, Lucas Van Zijl: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lucas Van Zijl: 1,176, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Martyn Newbery: 2,230, level confidence: 50%. Notes
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