Menu | Explaining level changesSimon Phillips v Simon Evenden (Tue 14 Mar 2023)Match won by Simon Phillips. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-2.Starting level for Simon Phillips: 2,701, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Evenden: 845, level confidence: 66%. Simon Phillips to win as he is currently playing 220% better than Simon Evenden. Simon Phillips won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Phillips played 560% better than Simon Evenden in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Phillips actually played at a level of 3,881 and Simon Evenden at a level of 588. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Phillips changes to +1% and Simon Evenden changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Phillips becomes +0.7% and for Simon Evenden becomes -12%. Given Simon Phillips's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Simon Phillips is +0.3% and for Simon Evenden is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Evenden is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Phillips: 87%, Simon Evenden: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Phillips: 61%, Simon Evenden: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Phillips: 2,705, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Simon Evenden: 804, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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