Menu | Explaining level changesMatt Elmer v Richard Newbould (Wed 08 Mar 2023)Match won by Matt Elmer. Result: 3-1.Starting level for Matt Elmer: 2,843, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Richard Newbould: 2,034, level confidence: 49%. Matt Elmer to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Richard Newbould. Matt Elmer won 75% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. As Matt Elmer has played below his allowed range at 2,572, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Matt Elmer would normally have been playing at level 2,744 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Newbould played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 3.3% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 2.6%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Elmer changes to -0.7% and Richard Newbould changes to +2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Elmer becomes -0.5% and for Richard Newbould becomes +2%. Given Matt Elmer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Given Richard Newbould's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Stratford Upon Avon Leagues' so the adjustment for Matt Elmer is 0% and for Richard Newbould is +1%. As Richard Newbould has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Matt Elmer's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Elmer: 75%, Richard Newbould: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Elmer: 71%, Richard Newbould: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matt Elmer: 2,839, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Richard Newbould: 2,051, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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