Menu | Explaining level changesDamian Mark Smyth v Simon Evenden (Wed 08 Mar 2023)Match won by Damian Mark Smyth. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-3.Starting level for Damian Mark Smyth: 1,380, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Evenden: 898, level confidence: 43%. Damian Mark Smyth to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Simon Evenden. Damian Mark Smyth won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Damian Mark Smyth played 200% better than Simon Evenden in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Damian Mark Smyth actually played at a level of 1,928 and Simon Evenden at a level of 643. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 31% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Damian Mark Smyth changes to +17% and Simon Evenden changes to -31%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Damian Mark Smyth becomes +8.6% and for Simon Evenden becomes -16%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Damian Mark Smyth is +4.3% and for Simon Evenden is -7.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Evenden is limited to -5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Damian Mark Smyth: 87%, Simon Evenden: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Damian Mark Smyth: 62%, Simon Evenden: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Damian Mark Smyth: 1,437, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Simon Evenden: 852, level confidence: 47%. Notes
|