Menu | Explaining level changesMatt Elmer v Ian Carnall (Mon 06 Mar 2023)Match won by Matt Elmer. Result: 3-1.Starting level for Matt Elmer: 2,869, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Ian Carnall: 1,186, level confidence: 67%. Matt Elmer to win as he is currently playing 142% better than Ian Carnall. Matt Elmer won 75% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matt Elmer was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,765 and 2,869 without affecting his level. As Matt Elmer has played below his allowed range at 1,617, his level reduction is 9.1% before damping. On the assumption that Matt Elmer would normally have been playing at level 2,362 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Carnall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 16% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 13%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Elmer changes to -2.6% and Ian Carnall changes to +12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Elmer becomes -1.8% and for Ian Carnall becomes +6.9%. Given Matt Elmer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Stratford Upon Avon Leagues' so the adjustment for Matt Elmer is -0.8% and for Ian Carnall is +3.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Elmer: 80%, Ian Carnall: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Elmer: 57%, Ian Carnall: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matt Elmer: 2,843, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Ian Carnall: 1,225, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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