Menu | Explaining level changesDamian Mark Smyth v Simon Phillips (Fri 03 Mar 2023)Match won by Simon Phillips. Result: 7-11,8-11,7-11.Starting level for Damian Mark Smyth: 1,366, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Phillips: 2,710, level confidence: 36%. Simon Phillips to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Damian Mark Smyth. Simon Phillips won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Phillips played 52% better than Damian Mark Smyth in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Simon Phillips was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,965 and 2,710 without affecting his level. In this case, Simon Phillips played at level 2,222 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Simon Phillips would normally have been playing at level 2,383 (based on typical behaviour), Damian Mark Smyth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Phillips changes to 0% and Damian Mark Smyth changes to +2.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Phillips becomes 0% and for Damian Mark Smyth becomes +2.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Simon Phillips is 0% and for Damian Mark Smyth is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Phillips: 60%, Damian Mark Smyth: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Phillips: 53%, Damian Mark Smyth: 77%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Damian Mark Smyth: 1,380, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Simon Phillips: 2,709, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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