Menu | Explaining level changesBarry Prescott v Mark Crichton (Fri 03 Feb 2023)Match won by Mark Crichton. Result: 15-12,12-15,5-15,10-15.Starting level for Barry Prescott: 1,206, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Mark Crichton: 3,114, level confidence: 56%. Mark Crichton to win as he is currently playing 158% better than Barry Prescott. Mark Crichton won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Crichton played 29% better than Barry Prescott in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Crichton was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,803 and 3,114 without affecting his level. As Mark Crichton has played below his allowed range at 1,672, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Crichton would normally have been playing at level 2,503 (based on typical behaviour), Barry Prescott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Crichton changes to -2% and Barry Prescott changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Crichton becomes -1.3% and for Barry Prescott becomes +7.6%. Given Mark Crichton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Crichton is -0.5% and for Barry Prescott is +3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Crichton: 75%, Barry Prescott: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Crichton: 53%, Barry Prescott: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barry Prescott: 1,250, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Mark Crichton: 3,092, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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