Menu | Explaining level changesIain Manchester v Tony Hooper (Sun 22 Jan 2023)Match won by Tony Hooper. Result: 7-15,8-15,4-15.Starting level for Iain Manchester: 742, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Tony Hooper: 921, level confidence: 68%. Tony Hooper to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Iain Manchester. Tony Hooper won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Hooper played 137% better than Iain Manchester in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tony Hooper actually played at a level of 1,272 and Iain Manchester at a level of 537. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 34% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Hooper changes to +32% and Iain Manchester changes to -34%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Hooper becomes +16.8% and for Iain Manchester becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Tony Hooper is +8.4% and for Iain Manchester is -8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Iain Manchester is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Hooper: 83%, Iain Manchester: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Hooper: 60%, Iain Manchester: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Iain Manchester: 706, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Tony Hooper: 997, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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