Menu | Explaining level changesMatt Elmer v Richard Newbould (Fri 13 Jan 2023)Match won by Richard Newbould. Result: 2-2.Starting level for Matt Elmer: 2,896, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Richard Newbould: 2,087, level confidence: 29%. Matt Elmer to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Richard Newbould. Richard Newbould won 50% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 0%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Newbould actually played at a level of 2,458 and Matt Elmer at a level of 2,458. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 15%. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 10.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Newbould changes to +11% and Matt Elmer changes to -6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Newbould becomes +5.2% and for Matt Elmer becomes -3.1%. Given Richard Newbould's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change. Given Matt Elmer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Stratford Upon Avon Leagues' so the adjustment for Richard Newbould is +2.6% and for Matt Elmer is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Newbould: 54%, Matt Elmer: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Newbould: 46%, Matt Elmer: 60%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matt Elmer: 2,861, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Richard Newbould: 2,143, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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