Menu | Explaining level changesRoger Camp v Paul Tomlinson (Thu 05 Jan 2023)Match won by Roger Camp. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-9.Starting level for Roger Camp: 3,332, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Paul Tomlinson: 1,664, level confidence: 62%. Roger Camp to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Paul Tomlinson. Roger Camp won all of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Camp played 40% better than Paul Tomlinson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Roger Camp was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,391 and 3,332 without affecting his level. As Roger Camp has played below his allowed range at 2,357, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Roger Camp would normally have been playing at level 2,918 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Tomlinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 8.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Camp changes to -0.9% and Paul Tomlinson changes to +8.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Camp becomes -0.6% and for Paul Tomlinson becomes +4.5%. Given Roger Camp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Roger Camp is 0% and for Paul Tomlinson is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Camp: 78%, Paul Tomlinson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Camp: 65%, Paul Tomlinson: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roger Camp: 3,319, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Paul Tomlinson: 1,699, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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