Menu | Explaining level changesWilliam Wesseley v Robin Dinmore (Fri 30 Dec 2022)Match won by William Wesseley. Result: 15-5,15-7,15-10.Starting level for William Wesseley: 1,202, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Robin Dinmore: 948, level confidence: 58%. William Wesseley to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Robin Dinmore. William Wesseley won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that William Wesseley played 105% better than Robin Dinmore in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like William Wesseley actually played at a level of 1,527 and Robin Dinmore at a level of 746. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for William Wesseley changes to +16% and Robin Dinmore changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for William Wesseley becomes +8.6% and for Robin Dinmore becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for William Wesseley is +4.3% and for Robin Dinmore is -6.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Robin Dinmore is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. William Wesseley: 92%, Robin Dinmore: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. William Wesseley: 72%, Robin Dinmore: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for William Wesseley: 1,252, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Robin Dinmore: 902, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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