Menu | Explaining level changesBernie Wright v Karl Staplehurst (Tue 20 Dec 2022)Match won by Karl Staplehurst. Result: 4-15,9-15,9-15.Starting level for Bernie Wright: 169, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Karl Staplehurst: 488, level confidence: 30%. Karl Staplehurst to win as he is currently playing 189% better than Bernie Wright. Karl Staplehurst won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Staplehurst played 105% better than Bernie Wright in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Karl Staplehurst was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 253 and 488 without affecting his level. In this case, Karl Staplehurst played at level 360 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Karl Staplehurst would normally have been playing at level 375 (based on typical behaviour), Bernie Wright played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Staplehurst changes to 0% and Bernie Wright changes to +1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Staplehurst becomes 0% and for Bernie Wright becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Karl Staplehurst is 0% and for Bernie Wright is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Staplehurst: 55%, Bernie Wright: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Staplehurst: 46%, Bernie Wright: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bernie Wright: 170, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Karl Staplehurst: 487, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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