Menu | Explaining level changesNick Cook v Robin Dinmore (Tue 13 Dec 2022)Match won by Nick Cook. Result: 15-9,15-17,15-13,15-6.Starting level for Nick Cook: 748, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Robin Dinmore: 997, level confidence: 65%. Robin Dinmore to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Nick Cook. Nick Cook won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Cook played 28% better than Robin Dinmore in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Cook actually played at a level of 976 and Robin Dinmore at a level of 764. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Cook changes to +22% and Robin Dinmore changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Cook becomes +12.1% and for Robin Dinmore becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Nick Cook is +6.1% and for Robin Dinmore is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Robin Dinmore is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Cook: 87%, Robin Dinmore: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Cook: 67%, Robin Dinmore: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick Cook: 792, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Robin Dinmore: 948, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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