Menu | Explaining level changesJames Hill v Jo Perriam (Tue 13 Dec 2022)Match won by James Hill. Result: 3-1.Starting level for James Hill: 2,685, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Jo Perriam: 864, level confidence: 56%. James Hill to win as he is currently playing 211% better than Jo Perriam. James Hill won 75% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Hill was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,283 and 2,685 without affecting his level. As James Hill has played below his allowed range at 1,177, his level reduction is 9% before damping. On the assumption that James Hill would normally have been playing at level 1,998 (based on typical behaviour), Jo Perriam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 36%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 19% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 15%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Hill changes to -4% and Jo Perriam changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Hill becomes -2.5% and for Jo Perriam becomes +7.7%. Given James Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for James Hill is -1.1% and for Jo Perriam is +3.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Hill: 69%, Jo Perriam: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Hill: 43%, Jo Perriam: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Hill: 2,652, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Jo Perriam: 896, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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