Menu | Explaining level changesTony Hooper v Iain Manchester (Fri 09 Dec 2022)Match won by Tony Hooper. Result: 15-4,15-5,15-8.Starting level for Tony Hooper: 844, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Iain Manchester: 719, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Tony Hooper to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Iain Manchester. Tony Hooper won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Hooper played 165% better than Iain Manchester in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tony Hooper actually played at a level of 1,267 and Iain Manchester at a level of 479. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Hooper changes to +43% and Iain Manchester changes to -46%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Hooper becomes +21.3% and for Iain Manchester becomes -22%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Tony Hooper is +10.7% and for Iain Manchester is -10.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tony Hooper is limited to +10% and Iain Manchester is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Hooper: 93%, Iain Manchester: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Hooper: 62%, Iain Manchester: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tony Hooper: 927, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Iain Manchester: 684, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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