Menu | Explaining level changesRoger Camp v Paul Tomlinson (Tue 08 Nov 2022)Match won by Roger Camp. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-1.Starting level for Roger Camp: 3,152, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Paul Tomlinson: 1,765, level confidence: 55%. Roger Camp to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Paul Tomlinson. Roger Camp won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Camp played 560% better than Paul Tomlinson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roger Camp actually played at a level of 6,060 and Paul Tomlinson at a level of 918. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 92% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 63% and 63% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Camp changes to +41% and Paul Tomlinson changes to -63%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Camp becomes +13.3% and for Paul Tomlinson becomes -23%. Given Roger Camp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Roger Camp is +5.5% and for Paul Tomlinson is -10.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Tomlinson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Camp: 91%, Paul Tomlinson: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Camp: 48%, Paul Tomlinson: 38%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roger Camp: 3,321, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Paul Tomlinson: 1,678, level confidence: 38%. Notes
|