Menu | Explaining level changesTim Hayden v Paul Tomlinson (Fri 04 Nov 2022)Match won by Tim Hayden. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-1.Starting level for Tim Hayden: 2,467, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Paul Tomlinson: 1,856, level confidence: 64%. Tim Hayden to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Paul Tomlinson. Tim Hayden won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Hayden played 175% better than Paul Tomlinson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Hayden actually played at a level of 3,548 and Paul Tomlinson at a level of 1,290. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Hayden changes to +31% and Paul Tomlinson changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Hayden becomes +11.5% and for Paul Tomlinson becomes -15%. Given Tim Hayden's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Tim Hayden is +5.3% and for Paul Tomlinson is -6.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Tomlinson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Hayden: 87%, Paul Tomlinson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Hayden: 60%, Paul Tomlinson: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Hayden: 2,593, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Paul Tomlinson: 1,765, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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